From Paris to Glasgow: How Nations Negotiate Climate Agreements

In December 2015, negotiators from 196 countries gathered in Le Bourget, France, and after two weeks of all-night bargaining produced the Paris Agreement. Within days, it was celebrated as a historic breakthrough. Within two years, the United States — the world's second-largest emitter — announced withdrawal. By 2021, a new U.S. administration had rejoined. This back-and-forth captures the central challenge of climate governance: it requires voluntary cooperation among sovereign nations who disagree sharply about costs, fairness, and urgency, with no global authority able to enforce anything.

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to: - Explain why climate change is a collective action problem that no single nation can solve alone - Describe the structure and key provisions of the Paris Agreement - Identify the main actors in international climate negotiations (states, NGOs, fossil fuel lobbies, island nations) - Summarize what changed at COP26 in Glasgow (2021) and what remained unresolved - Evaluate the gap between national pledges and observed emissions trajectories

Carbon dioxide emitted in the United States warms the climate in Bangladesh. Deforestation in Brazil affects rainfall in Argentina. Climate change is the ultimate externality — the costs of greenhouse gas emissions fall on people and countries that did not produce them. This creates a classic collective action problem: every country benefits from a stable climate, but every country also has an incentive to let others do the costly work of cutting emissions. If France cuts its emissions but China does not, France bears the costs while everyone shares whatever benefit results. This logic pushes every actor toward free-riding — consuming the shared good without contributing to it. The international system has no central authority. The United Nations can facilitate negotiations and create norms, but it cannot force a sovereign state to reduce emissions. Every climate agreement is ultimately voluntary.

The Paris Agreement (2015) departed significantly from its predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol (1997). Kyoto set binding emissions targets for developed nations only — the U.S. Senate never ratified it, and Canada withdrew in 2011. Paris took a fundamentally different approach. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Each country sets its own emissions reduction target. There is no internationally mandated number — countries decide what they are willing to do. NDCs are submitted every five years and are designed to become more ambitious over time. The 1.5 degree goal: Countries agreed to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with 2 degrees as a fallback. The difference matters enormously: at 2 degrees, most coral reefs die; at 1.5 degrees, some survive. Transparency: Countries must report on their emissions and progress. A ratchet mechanism is supposed to increase ambition over successive rounds. Climate finance: Developed countries pledged 100 billion dollars per year by 2020 to help developing nations adapt and transition. The OECD calculated that actual disbursements reached 89.6 billion dollars in 2021 — falling short. Crucially, Paris has no enforcement mechanism. If a country misses its NDC, there is no fine or sanction — only reputational pressure from peers and civil society.

Climate negotiations are not just between governments. Multiple actors shape what ends up in final agreements. Major emitters: The G7 nations and major developing emitters (China at 30% of global emissions, India, Brazil, Indonesia) hold most leverage. No deal matters without China and the United States. AOSIS (Alliance of Small Island States): Nations like Tuvalu and the Maldives face existential risk from sea-level rise. They consistently push for the most ambitious targets and demand compensation for losses they cannot prevent. Fossil fuel industry: The 2023 COP28 in Dubai was presided over by the head of Abu Dhabi's state oil company. More than 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists attended COP27. Industry presence actively shapes what language appears in final texts. NGOs and civil society: Organizations like Greenpeace and Climate Action Network attend negotiations but cannot vote. They provide technical analysis, apply public pressure, and amplify the voices of affected communities. Youth movements: Greta Thunberg's 2018 school strike sparked Fridays for Future, which grew to millions of students in 150 countries by 2019. While not formal negotiators, youth movements changed the political landscape around climate commitments.

The 2021 UN climate conference (COP26) in Glasgow produced several notable developments. Glasgow Climate Pact: Countries committed to phase down (not phase out — India and China lobbied successfully for weaker language) coal power and to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Updated NDCs: More than 100 countries submitted stronger pledges. The IEA assessed that if all pledges were fully met, warming could be limited to approximately 1.8 degrees Celsius — a significant improvement from the pre-Paris trajectory of 3 to 4 degrees. Methane pledge: Over 100 countries pledged to cut methane emissions 30 percent by 2030. Methane is about 80 times more potent than CO2 as a warming agent over a 20-year period. Article 6 rules: Negotiators finally agreed on rules governing international carbon markets, allowing countries to trade emissions credits — though critics warn about double-counting risks. What remained unresolved: The 100-billion-dollar climate finance pledge went unmet. Loss and damage funding — compensation for developing nations already suffering unavoidable climate impacts — was not agreed at Glasgow and was only agreed in principle at COP27 in 2022. Observed global emissions continued rising in 2022 and 2023.