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High School Capstone⏱ 5–8 hours
A Frontier AI Forecast
Research and write a reasoned forecast of where AI is heading.
Your mission
Research the frontier of AI and write a forecast — a reasoned, evidence-based projection of how a capability will develop.
What you'll need
- A computer with internet
- Credible, recent sources
- A document tool
Your step-by-step plan
Pick a capability
Choose one frontier area — reasoning, agents, AI for science, multimodal AI.
Study the trend
Research how it has progressed and how fast, recording your sources.
Make a forecast
Project where it could be in two to five years, with your reasoning and uncertainty.
Stress-test it
Write what could make your forecast wrong, in either direction.
Make it yours
- Give a confidence level for each prediction.
- Note what the forecast means for jobs or for safety.
How you'll know you succeeded
- The forecast rests on documented trends.
- Reasoning and uncertainty are both shown.
- Ways it could be wrong are named.